The Skeptic الشكاك

536 Number of Islamist Detainees ‘Exaggerated’

Egyptian Interior Minister Habib al-Adli disputed human-rights organizations’ estimates of the number of Islamist detainees in comments carried by Al-Misri al-Youm today. He said no more than 1,800 are in prison. This, incidentally, did not include Brothers, an equal number of whom have been arrested and released in the past year. We’re talking mostly about people still in detention after the mass arrests of the 1990s.

Egyptian human rights NGOs and academics put the number much higher—I’ve heard one respected researcher say as high as 10,000, though that was before a mass amnesty. I’ve heard Islamist lawyers say lower and higher, with varying degrees of credibility.

Of course, the government could put the dispute over numbers to rest by releasing records of all police and State Security actions against suspected Islamists in the ’90s, along with full dossiers on what happened to each detainee. Names and information that could put informants or future operations at risk could be redacted. And then Egyptians could sing “Kumbaya” and have a national discussion about the best way to confront the people who want to kill them….

533 Egypt Detains Al-Jazeera Journalist Again, Hunts Palestinians

Police detained Al-Jazeera journalist Huwaida Taha Mitwalli again, human-rights organizations and security officials said today. She was making a documentary about seasonal farm workers in Imbaba.

Mitwalli had also been detained almost a year ago to the day as she attempted to board a plane to Doha. Security officers confiscated tapes of a documentary she was making about torture in Egypt and charged her with “practicing activities that harm the national interest of the country,” and “possessing and giving false pictures about the internal situation in Egypt that could undermine the dignity of the country.”

On May 2, a Cairo criminal court sentenced her, in absentia, to six months in prison and a imposed a fine of LE 20,000 ($3,590) for the documentary. She is, or rather, had been, free, pending the conclusion of her appeal on February 11.

It’s not yet clear if she will face new charges for this new documentary.

It has now been almost a week since Palestinians blew holes in the Rafah border fence and started streaming over into Egypt by the hundreds of thousands to buy goods denied to them by Israel’s closure of the Strip.

An Al-Jazeera TV segment reported today that Egyptian security forces had started laying barbed wire across the holes while armed Hamas men watched from Gazan Rafah.

Back in Cairo, Palestinian Authority diplomats secured an agreement from Egypt and the European Union to put the PA’s armed men in control of the border, rather than Hamas’.

The prospect of a PA buffer must look attractive to Egypt, but leaves me feeling a bit sorry for Abbas. (Pity the proxy, hate the… proxification?) Not as sorry as I feel for anyone unfortunate enough to live on the edge of the wasteland of demolished homes dividing the town of Rafah, though. Especially now that she faces the prospect of renewed fighting between Fatah and Hamas on her doorstep.

I also feel a bit sorry for President Mubarak. This has been a terrible embarrassment all around. Mubarak is expected to meet Palestinian President Mahmud Abbas and a delegation from Hamas on Wednesday. Foreign Minister Ahmed Abul Gheit is buying time.

With all the talk of Israel’s giving Gaza back to Egypt, or of expanding Gaza, Mubarak and intelligence chief Omar Sulaiman must be even more anxious to put an end to this crisis.

Mubarak & Co. get enough headaches from the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood. They’d certainly prefer not to see the Brotherhood’s armed Palestinian cousins running around. So there’s a partial blockade of the town of Rafah, and security forces are fanning out across the country. They’re telling landlords and hotel owners to report Palestinians and to refuse them lodging. They’re stopping vehicles, looking for Palestinians.

In Cairo, everyone’s talking about Abutreeeeka—more than usual, I mean. The star Ahly striker is one of a few, living, Egyptian national heroes on his worst day. (Personally, I’ve always liked Barakat — Ahly’s play just doesn’t look the same when he’s not there, quietly making things happen). But the weekend’s match against Sudan will fix his place alongside other Egyptian heroes in history’s firmament. He scored two out of Egypt’s three goals to beat Sudan… and got a yellow card for displaying this T-Shirt:

Hossam‘s “Bravo, ya Abu Treika” echoed from every concrete wall in Cairo today.

532 Edwards Must Go

This is a blog about the Middle East. I talk about U.S. politics only in so far as they affect the Middle East. But I must confess that part of the reason for my light blogging in recent months has been my obsession with the U.S. presidential race. After John Edwards placed a distant third in his native South Carolina, I am breaking my usual policy to say this: Edwards needs to go.

His dismal performance in his own state shows that he has no chance of winning anywhere. That he’s still in the race suggests that he’s hoping to be a VP nominee and that he wants to leave the door open to invitations from Clinton and Obama. I don’t buy this giving-voice-to-the-voiceless bullshit for a second.

His only utility as a vice-presidential candidate is that he’s a southern, white male. But southern, white men who vote on race and sex will vote for the Republican white man before voting for the woman or the black man, with or without John Edwards as a running-mate. He’s useless in November. Remember that this is the man who lost a debate to Dick Cheney, perhaps the most uncharismatic—and, among Democrats, reviled—U.S. politician out there.

Alas, he’s not yet totally useless. He could prove a king-maker in the primaries. I suspect—and perhaps Edwards voters will write in to prove me wrong—that Edwards voters would break for Obama or McCain before Clinton. Edwards himself seems to favor Obama over Clinton. If he drops out and lends his support to Obama, Obama wins.

As long as he stays in the race, he aids Clinton by siphoning off Obama votes. If this is the aim, why not actually drop out and support Clinton? Because he knows that she uniquely inspires the same hatred among Republican and independent voters as Cheney does among Democrats? I doubt it. The minute he thinks he can safely pick a winner to get him on the ticket as the VP, he’ll drop out and support whoever can best help his career. Which is a terrible reason to continue running for president.

Cut the shit, Edwards. Time to quit. You’re not running for president. You’re running for vice-president. It’s time to choose your side.

531 Gaza Overflows

Why is it that the minute I leave Egypt, all hell breaks loose?

As you’ve no doubt heard unless you live in a hole, tens of thousands of Gazans today destroyed the border fence dividing Rafah and streamed across into Egypt, some  to buy supplies denied to them since Israel sealed the borders, others simply to get out of Gaza.

President Mubarak, saving face, said he’d allowed them to cross because they were starving, that he’d instructed security forces to allow them in if they weren’t carrying weapons before escorting them out.

But back in Cairo, police arrested hundreds of protesters, mostly from the Muslim Brotherhood, but also including secular activists, demonstrating against conditions in Gaza and Egypt’s perceived complicity.

And I’m here in dreary London, where the top story is police protesting because their pay-raise was 0.6 percent less than promised.

530 Gaza Goes Dark

Gaza’s main power plant completely shut down on Sunday. Most of Gaza’s 1.5 million people depend on aid. Once again, they’re now cut off from light and water, too.

Al-Arabiya: “Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak ordered the crossings into Gaza closed late Thursday, saying the move was aimed at pressuring militants inside to stop firing rockets and mortars into Israel and that it would be reassessed.”

The BBC:

Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert insists he will not allow Gaza to suffer a humanitarian crisis but equally will not allow the lives of its 1.5m inhabitants to be “pleasant and comfortable” […] “As far as I’m concerned, all the residents of Gaza can walk and have no fuel for their cars, because they have a murderous terrorist regime that doesn’t allow people in the south of Israel to live in peace,” he said.

Collectively punishing and demoralizing a population into exhausted surrender or death is one way to establish peace. But the ministers would have to starve and exhaust the population to death for the policy to work in the long term. If it is not fully implemented, it will only prompt more attacks. Unless they are willing to carry this policy out to its conclusion, to commit genocide, the ministers should desist.

529 Aiding Burma: Gems and Japan

This from the press release accompanying HRW’s letter to Japanese Foreign Minister Masahiko Koumura on the eve of the Mekong Meeting:

Significant amounts of Japanese aid were distributed in Burma through organizations created and controlled by the Burmese military government, such as the Union Solidarity and Development Association (USDA). In the fiscal year 2006, Japan gave a total of 26 million yen (US$240,000) in grants to the USDA despite that organization’s repeated harassment and attacks on opposition political figures, including Aung San Suu Kyi and her National League for Democracy supporters.

The organization is also calling for a smart boycott of Burmese gems. Burma supplies 90 percent of the world’s rubies, and is the world’s top jade producer:

Human Rights Watch advised consumers to ask retailers about the origin of the jewelry they sell, and to decline to purchase from retailers who are not able to offer informed answers or who are unwilling to identify the country of origin of the jewels in writing, such as on the sales receipt.

Retailers should require their suppliers to identify the country of origin on any invoices and to guarantee that gemstones were not mined in Burma, Human Rights Watch said. Retailers should also seek to verify the accuracy of their suppliers’ claims.

Sound advice. Those of us who can’t afford rubies or jade will just have to go on wearing our red shirts.

528 An Israeli Law for Censorship of Web Comments

Global Voices has a good roundup of the Israeli debate over a law that would make administrators of Web sites that get more than 50,000 hits a day legally responsible for libelous comments posted on their sites. The law passed the first round of voting in the Knesset on January 16. Opponents argue the law would restrict free speech. Proponents argue a large Web site can damage a reputation as much as a newspaper can and so should be held to the same legal standards.

527 Afghan Press on the Serena Hotel Attack

The Afghanwire newsletter has an interesting roundup of Afghan press reaction to the January 14 Taliban attack on Kabul’s Serena Hotel that killed eight people, including a Norwegian journalist. A few interesting things here:

1. The hotel is located meters away from the Presidential Palace and the Ministry of Defense, a fact not lost on Afghan commentators.
2. Sympathetic language in Al-Emarah, which cast the attack as a “martyrdom” operation against “occupiers” and the “puppet government.”
3. Cheragh‘s analysis:
   

   [The timing of the attack was] directly connected to the winter strategy of the government and NATO military powers and it is their influence inside the governmental intelligence service.

   According to existing information, the Afghan government this winter is hoping that the clashes will naturally subside so as to target the important commanders of the Taliban in order to finish these people off in spring operations and decrease their operational and terror plans and operationsOn the other hand, the Taliban also don’t want to leave easily the battlefield open for their enemies and suffer casualties in order to retake lost areas [those captured by the government]. It means the Taliban have been investing in two separate procedures:

   1. The recruitment of soldiers and strengthening of strongholds: it is stated that 3000-5000 Taliban have recently been trained and are entering Afghanistan from Pakistan through 16 border-points in order to strengthen their current soldiers and keep the clash fresh/warm.
   2. Focus on civil targets in the cities: the use of suicide bombers to weaken the morale of government soldiers and decrease the measure of trust of the international community in the ability of government troops to protect and secure the atmosphere/environment of the residents and maintain the security of establishments even in the cities and capital.

   This is the 2nd time in one year that the Taliban were able to precisely target their political aims. Even though the visit of Dick Cheney, the US vice-president, was secret, the Taliban succeeded in sending a violent and aggressive message by crossing the security lines and [performing a] suicide attack. And they proved to the international community on Tuesday as well that they have selected their aims and that no one is protected: neither high-ranking foreign guests, nor the presidential palace.

   The attack two days ago was also part of the second tactic, the continuation of which could have negative outcomes.

4. Pointed questions from Erada, which said the attack on the hotel showed “a security collapse” in Afghanistan:
   

   Based on the reports of Ghurzang’s internet news service, following the murder and deadly incident at the Kabul Serena Hotel, the Afghan president invited the Norwegian guests who had suffered the seriousness of affairs in Kabul Serena Hotel to stay in the presidential palace. This statement of Karzai highlights that security [is decreasing] and that the only place to enjoy security even within the country is the presidential palace.

   It is still unclear whether the president will invite all 25 million people in the country to the presidential palace or whether he will leave them to be burned in the strong fires of insecurity, or whether he only wants himself and his foreign diplomatic guests to stay in a secure environment.

526 Three Protests

Yesterday police rounded up Kifaya protesters attempting to protest the cancellation of ration cards in Sayaida Zainab Square, the center of a low-income neighborhood in central Cairo. Police drove the activists around for a few hours, then dropped them off at the edge of town and told them to find their own way home. Hossam, blogging from Berkeley, does a nice job of synthesizing various reports at 3arabawy.

A few days ago, small protests against Bush’s visit passed uneventfully. Reporters and photographers dutifully showed up at the block that contains the Press Syndicate, the Lawyers’ Syndicate, and the Judges’ Club, photographed the signs, wrote down the chants, and filed their stories. For about a year, the policy seems to have been that protests can take place only on this city block, and maybe around the corner in Talaat Harb Square (and then only if you’re protesting Bush). A protest about food prices in congested Sayaida Zainab, the epicenter of the 1970s bread riots, is right out—this anniversary, anyway (the government permitted last year’s anniversary protest).

On a personal note, I’m relieved to find out why the men in bad leather jackets were back in front of my apartment yesterday. If you’re reading, guys, I no longer work in human rights and no longer chase protesters around town. Don’t tire your feet on my account.

In any case, I am as interested by Egyptian Foreign Minister Ahmad Abul Gheit’s protest against the European Parliament resolution criticizing Egypt’s human rights record overwhelmingly passed in Strasbourg yesterday as I am in the latest abortive Kifaya demo.

“Egypt totally rejects attempts by anyone who takes it upon himself to be an investigator of human rights in Egypt,” Abul Gheit told the government-owned Middle East News Agency.

And today the Foreign Ministry responded to the EU Parliament’s resolution with a tit-for-tat statement expressing deep concern “at the deteriorating state of the rights of religious and ethnic minorities and immigrants on the European continent.”

524 Egypt Threatens to Cut Ties with European Parliament

Fathi Surour, speaker of the People’s Assembly, yesterday threated to cut ties with the European Parliament and the Euro-Mediterranean Council if the European Parliament passes a resolution criticizing Egypt’s record on human rights, the government-owned Middle East News Agency reported today.

In April 2006 the European Parliament voted to make respect for human rights a priority in negotiations for Egypt on an EU-Egypt Action Plan under the European Neighborhood Policy, but EU officials have yet to indicate how they plan to do this. The January 2007 Action Plan agreement made human rights and the participation of civil society important components of the action plan, but lacked specific benchmarks.

The EU-Egypt Action Plan calls for “particular attention” to be given to “Enhanc[ing] the effectiveness of institutions entrusted with strengthening democracy and the rule of law and consolidat[ing] the independent and effective administration of justice,” and “Promot[ing] the protection of human rights in all its aspects.”

The document contains three pages of human-rights language. I don’t have time to dig up the original link, but I’ve posted the .PDF from my files here if anyone’s interested in reading the full document.

I'm Reading: