The Skeptic الشكاك

179 Meanwhile, in Iraq and Indiana…

The news is hazardous this week. While the bombing continued in Lebanon and Israel, one hundred Iraqi civilians were killed over the past 24 hours.

Here in Cairo, everyone I talk to seems to be sinking into depression. All conversations eventually turn to the war. “Have you heard anything since this afternoon?” For a few minutes people swap reports of new bombings, new statements, complaints about Bush, arguments about Hizbullah. But the talk is no longer animated. It comes in spurts, then people lower their eyes, bite their lips, and brood.

I just spoke with a friend who returned last night from a holiday in Beirut. She went to Damascus to do some shopping the day the hummos hit the fan (as Angry Arab put it). She reports that Damascus is thriving from the infusion of Gulf Arabs, foreigners, and Lebanese people fleeing Beirut. Hotels are full to capacity, restaurants are fully booked. Lebanese families have sent all the kids in the extended family in the company of one adult.

I caught a bit of CNN the other night. They were reporting on “The Conflict Between Israel and Hizbullah.” I’m not sure how they decided to describe the war in those terms, especially given this July 12 report from CNN’s Web site:

Israel called Wednesday’s abductions an act of war, and Maj. Gen. Udi Adam, head of Israel’s Northern Command, said he has “comprehensive plans” to battle Hezbollah throughout Lebanon, not just in its southern stronghold.

“This affair is between Israel and the state of Lebanon,” Adam said. “Where to attack? Once it is inside Lebanon, everything is legitimate — not just southern Lebanon, not just the line of Hezbollah posts.”

Earlier, Israel’s chief of staff, Lt. Gen. Dan Halutz, told Israel’s Channel 10, “If the soldiers are not returned, we will turn Lebanon’s clock back 20 years.”

Whenever I catch U.S. TV news coverage of the Middle East, I always feel like they must be describing some other planet, or living on another planet. Only about 30 seconds of the broadcast seemed authentic. People in southern Lebanon read what CNN described as “Anti-Hizbullah leaflets dropped on Lebanon,” tore them up in disgust, and threw them to the wind. Later I read a report by a journalist who actually reads Arabic and learned that the leaflets threatened “anyone who aids Hizbullah, either directly or indirectly” with death. There’s a bit of a difference between an “anti-Hizbullah pamphlet” and a death threat from the people bombing your town.

The problem is that Americans will see this footage and think “dirty terrorist sympathizers,” without pausing to consider how they might react if an enemy, any enemy, bombed their town and then dropped flyers on Main Street threatening them with death for “directly or indirectly” helping the local government or the Army. Of course they’d tear up the flyers.

Not that it matters what Americans think. The United States’ response to the war in Lebanon has been a non-response (emergency evacuation efforts aside). Rumor has it that the Israelis told Secretary of State Condoleeza Rice to “back off” when she started with the “restrain yourselves” bullshit. One might think that this would piss Secretary Rice off enough to push harder. One would be wrong. One might think the US was shying away from getting involved because of its bad experience in Lebanon’s last war. But the US is not staying out of it. It’s just leaving it up to Blair and the UN to make constructive suggestions. Really, who cares what Americans think? If the rumors are true, not even the Israelis.

[tags]Israel, Lebanon, United States[/tags]

178 Lebanese Bloggers Call for Help

I like this.
[tags]Lebanon, Israel[/tags]

177 St. George’s Bay, Turtle Bay, and George Bey

St. George’s Bay
The news from Lebanon looks worse and worse. Friends in Beirut are busy trying to get out. Problem is, there’s no way out. The airport’s bombed, there’s a naval blockade, and all roads out of the country are bombed out. So they’re trying to get to the mountains in the Christian North. I hope they’re OK.

Turtle Bay
In related news, the United States killed a Security Council resolution that called for a ceasefire in Gaza and the release of the captured Israeli corporal. Ten of the 15 members of the UNSC voted in favor, four countries abstained, and only the United States voted against. I don’t want to hear Ambassador Bolton complain that the United Nations is ineffectual again.

George Bey
Also amazed to hear that President Bush told Lebanese Prime Minister Fouad Siniora he was “he was keen on pressing Israel to contain the damage to Lebanon and to avoid inflicting harm on innocent civilians.”

Thanks, George, thanks for your support. I’d love to hear the tape of that call: “Fouad, baby, just wanted [loud explosion] to let you know I’ve asked [screams of agony] the Israelis to [sirens] go easy on you. No hard feelings, OK?”

American diplomacy’s finest hour. Never mind that this is a wholly inadequate response given the dangers of the current situation. Siniora must have the patience of a saint. I can imagine him on that call, wondering if at that very moment somewhere in Virginia an American officer wasn’t writing an email to his Israeli counterpart discussing the next shipment of donated American weapons to Israel.

Thumbsucking Department:
Last night, SP, one of the smartest people who (puzzlingly) finds time to read this blog, asked me to speculate a bit more about Syria and Iran’s motivations and how this ties into their regional goals. So I did:

Everything that follows is all so much thumbsucking and speculation. And I feel a bit guilty engaging in it while friends trapped in Beirut are reading Israeli flyers warning them of the coming bombing. Everyone ? Israel, Hizbullah ? is behaving insanely. It?s hard to posit rational motivations for insane behavior.

That said, first off, I?m sure Syria and Iran genuinely support the Palestinians against Israel. But they?re not stupid, and I don?t think they would have tried to provoke an Israeli attack in Lebanon for the sake of the umma alone.

On Syria?Again, this is all speculative, but I spoke with a Syrian friend last night who posited the same theory, so at least I?m not alone, and it?s a pretty simple idea: that Lebanon?s being shown to be a sitting, defenseless duck would clear the way for Syria?s return.

On Iran: Driving through southern Lebanon a few weeks ago, I was struck by how many billboards depicted the ?heroes? of the Iranian revolution. So I asked an Iranian friend, a close and thoughtful observer of events back home, what Iran was up to. He said Iran wants to be a regional superpower. In many ways it already is, particularly now that Iraq is no longer a counterbalance. But it wants to be recognized as such and dealt with as such. Its support for militias, he said, is its way of exerting influence.

So Iran, increasingly isolated on the nuclear issue, may have wanted Hizbullah to open the second front as a means of getting off its heels on to the balls of its feet.

The US had shown itself to be willing to negotiate on the nuclear issue, but within limits. And since spring, even I have been hearing more and more echoes of an ?emerging consensus? in Washington that Amrika would bomb Iran?s nuclear facilities this fall.

Iran may have calculated that in the inevitable shit-storm following Hizbullah?s actions, Iran could then tell all concerned, ?Well, we could refrain from getting deeper into this. Or we could make things a whole lot worse very quickly.? It may have calculated that these threats could become leverage, otherwise scant, in negotiations on the nuclear issue, that folks would rather give Iran six more months of talks than risk a regional war in the Middle East.

Iran may likewise have calculated that if a military confrontation were coming, it at least would choose its time and its place, and better southern Lebanon with the Gaza offensive raging than nuclear facilities on Iranian soil this fall?particularly given how much the Iranian government has staked on jingoism, nukes, and prestige? in the end, really so much hot air. A devastating and unanswered air strike could pop the balloon. And I?m sure Iran?s government would rather control the release of the dangerous emotions it?s been playing with than try to ride an explosion.

[tags]lebanon, beirut, israel, iran, syria[/tags]

176 War in the North

The IDF today bombed the Beirut airport, continued its bombardment of southern Lebanon, and bombed an office of Hizbollah’s satellite TV station, Al-Manar, in Beirut. Israel is telling Lebanon to evacuate residents of predominantly Shia, pro-Hizbollah southern Beirut, evidently in preparation for a bombing campaign there.

Yesterday my friend asked, “What is Hizbollah thinking?” She wasn’t alone. Today’s events, and the Lebanese government’s total inability to defend itself, have suggested one possible explanation for Hizbollah’s actions: Hizbollah’s patrons in Iran and Syria may have wished to provoke a response that would show the Lebanese government’s weakness and justify greater intervention in Lebanon.

But more importantly, given last night’s and this morning’s developments, today I’m wondering, “What is Israel thinking?” The most surprising thing about Israel’s actions is not that they’re outrageous. It’s that they don’t serve Israel’s interests. They defy explanation. If even senior IDF officers recognize that the Gaza raids won’t halt rocket fire, what are they up to in Gaza and now Lebanon? If the aim is to bring its soldiers back alive, how is this helping? Have they forgotten 1982 and what that brought? The editors of Haaretz apparently have not:

There may be some who think that it is appropriate to use the opportunity to “cleanse” all of southern Lebanon of Hezbollah bases so as to give Israel back its deterrent capability. Syria, too, is liable to be seen as an appropriate target in this context, especially since Israel—justifiably so, to a great extent—views Syria as having the ability to influence the Palestinian organizations and Hezbollah. But it’s doubtful that such inordinate action will bring about the release of the captives; it is liable to bring about, God forbid, a new version of the 1982 entanglement…Israel must not let the abductions drag it into a regional war.

Incidentally, the Boston Globe—which, like many U.S. newspapers, is usually a more reflexive defender of Israeli policies than Tel Aviv’s own Haaretz—took a similar line today:

Israeli leaders — who are openly warning of devastating strikes on Lebanon’s infrastructure — would be well advised to avoid a reflexive military response that lands Israel in an Iranian trap. If the regime in Tehran wants to provoke Israel to bomb Lebanese power plants, roads, and bridges, maybe this kind of military retaliation is not such a good idea.

If the aim is to weaken support for Hizbollah by bombing the airport and pro-Hizbollah neighborhoods of Beirut, Israel should know better from experience. So what are they doing?

Following Bush’s remarks in Germany today, I’m also wondering what he’s thinking. “Israel has the right to defend herself,” he said. “Secondly, whatever Israel does should not weaken the … government in Lebanon.”

Come again? Well now there’s a coherent policy, one for the “you know, the thing I like about Bush is that at least you always know where he stands” crowd.

The Russian foreign ministry—which admittedly has its own nefarious, though at least profitable, interests—did better:

The attack on Beirut International Airport is a dangerous step on the road of military escalation. We decisively reaffirm our support of the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Lebanon. One can neither understand nor justify Israel’s continued destruction of civilian infrastructure in Lebanon and in the Palestinian territory, and the disproportionate use of force, from which civilians suffer. Equally unacceptable are the manifestations of terrorism, the practice of capture of hostages, who must at once and unconditionally be released.

All the parties involved in the current developments should act immediately to stop the region from sliding towards an open conflict and it is all the more important to exclude any steps which would provoke the drawing into confrontation of ever new participants.

Lebanon is calling for immediate U.N. Security Council intervention. France supports those calls. So do I.

[tags]Lebanon, Israel, Beirut, lebanon[/tags]

175 Hizbullah Opens a Second Front

Hizbullah has opened a second front. Al-Jazeera TV is reporting half a dozen Israeli soldiers dead and two held captive. Israeli ground troups have crossed into Lebanon, and Israeli fighter planes have bombed bridges in southern Lebanon.

Now, about that Security Council resolution… I recognize Gaza is a unique case in many regards. But Lebanon, on paper at least, is an honest-to-goodness country.

And what’s Hizbullah thinking? I’m sure the Palestinians appreciate the gesture, but as one friend asked, what does Hizbullah realistically hope to accomplish? They’re holding a press conference here in Cairo tomorrow. Guess I can ask them in person then. In the meantime, anyone care to speculate?
[tags]Lebanon, Israel, Hizbullah, Gaza[/tags]

174 Journalists Still Risk Jail Under ‘New’ Press Law

Here’s HRW’s statement on the new press law. Nice to see BBC and Reuters picked it up.

[tags]Egypt, Press Law[/tags]

173 Saba7 al-batates, ya doktur

Saba7 al-batates, Doktur.
[tags]Egypt[/tags]

170 Readings on Gaza

I am way too busy to argue about the Israeli-Palestinian conflict with strangers online, and I don’t have much information to add beyond what I read in the newspapers. But I hope that visitors here will at least come away with a look at some non-media sources before they go off to call each other names elsewhere:

• First, a draft of the U.N. Human Rights Council’s resolution on Gaza. An amended version was passed yesterday (partisans on either side might wish to consult the voting records in deciding what kind of food to eat tonight). Qatar introduced a draft resolution to the Security Council, which (the BBC and the Jewish Telegraphic Agency affirm) will almost certainly be vetoed by the United States. This is too bad. Open war in Gaza poses exactly the kind of serious threat to regional security that the UNSC was created to solve. I’m looking for Qatar’s draft UNSC resolution now and will add a link if I find it.
• Second, the sitrep of the U.N. Office for the Coordination for Humanitarian Affairs, dated July 4. Since even the IDF spokeswoman claims to be concerned about the Humanitarian Situation in the camps, I think we can all agree this is important information.
• Third, in the category of gossip: When I spoke with representatives of the PLO and Hamas in Lebanon last week, they reported that the Israeli onslaught has led the groups to put aside differences throughout The Occupied Territories and the camps in Lebanon. Something for the Israelis to chew over as they decide whether to drop more bombs…

[tags]Gaza, Israel, Palestine, Palestinians[/tags]

169 From Beirut to Cairo

Lebanon clings to symbols to stay together like a beautiful but insecure woman clings to a designer handbag. In Beirut, The Martyr Rafiq Hariri smiles down at the city from massive billboards, three-story-high banners, posters, and flags. In Shia neighborhoods, he’s replaced by Nasrallah. In the south, Nasrallah—and, to a surprising extent, Khomeini and even Arafat—line the roadsides and festoon the alleyways. Along the road to Byblos through the Christian heartland, pharmacies eschew the neutral mortar and pestle for the green neon cross. The one thing everyone can agree on is football. I was there during the World Cup quarter finals. Massive German and Brazilian flags draped most of the city. Judging from the banners, city blocks seemed not so much Christian, Sunni, or Shia as German or Brazilian.

The sectarian troubles that tore the country apart for 15 years of civil war are still just below the surface. A taxi driver looked at me askance when I told him I’d been to the south, but remained polite. But when I introduced myself as “Elias” (a common Lebanese Christian name), he almost kissed me. In the end he contented himself with a big high-five and effusive congratulations for having such a great name. “Sorry,” he said, “When you said you’d been to Tyre, I thought you were one of them.”

A Palestinian leader, when asked what the government could do to demonstrate its good faith in wanting to improve conditions in the camps, produced a laundry list of demands, many of which seemed unlikely to happen given internal Lebanese politics.

“But what if the government is unable to concede to some of these demands because they would upset the delicate balance in Lebanon?”

“Then they must remember that we have guns and we could come out of the camps with guns. When we took up our guns and used them, we chased the Lebanese army out of the camps.” The quick resort to threats of violence took me by surprise.

I was also surprised by the evidence of Syrian, Iranian, and even Al-Qaeda meddling. I’d always been suspicious of talk of Syrian-Iranian cooperation and harmful meddling in the region. But it’s true: The Lebanese groups are open about the sources of their money and guns, and it seemed pretty clear that the money and the guns weren’t helping Lebanon come together. All the groups profess to be worried by Al-Qaeda’s ventures into the Palestinian camps and the possibility of the camps’ becoming recruiting grounds for foreign fighters in Iraq. There have been a few cases of Palestinian refugees from Lebanon popping up in Iraq.

And yet, for all these problems, even the remote villages are clean and well-administered. There are more world-class restaurants and night spots on one block of Beirut than in all of Cairo. Traffic People get along surprisingly well. True, the Maronite taxi driver didn’t try to kiss me until he thought I was a fellow Maronite, but we had a very pleasant conversation during the time he thought I was Shia. Seeing this sort of surface-deep good-will, glamor, and glitz, a friend who’s spent most of the past 10 years in Baghdad initially hoped that Baghdad, now suffering from similar problems to those Lebanon faced not long ago (occupation, civil war), might follow Beirut’s example. A few days later, I asked her if she still thought Baghdad might look like Beirut in 10 years. “I don’t know,” she said. “Pigs might fly.”

Coming from Egypt, all this Lebanese success actually annoyed me. If Lebanon—a few years after a 15-year civil war, and with no natural resources to speak of—can do so well, why is Egypt so screwed up? OK, there are only something like 4 million people in all of Lebanon, or about the population of Shobra and Bulaq. But is population all there is to it? Egypt borders two seas, it has the Suez Canal, natural gas reserves, unparalleled tourist destinations, and it hasn’t just emerged from a long civil war. You’d think that’d be enough to outweigh the population differences. So why is Lebanon so nice?

Update: Speaking of tensions below the surface and the importance of symbols, the BBC reports clashes between rival Druze factions upset over the display of political posters have left one dead and five wounded.

[tags]Egypt, Lebanon, Beirut[/tags]

168 HRW on Ibrahim Eissa

Still in Lebanon, with spotty access to the Web (will write more on the trip when I’m back in Cairo), but in the meantime, here, belatedly, is HRW’s press release on Eissa:

Egypt: Jailing Journalists Strikes at Press Freedom
Editor, Reporter Sentenced for ?Insulting President?

(Beirut, June 28, 2006) ? A local court verdict sentencing an editor and a journalist at an opposition newspaper to one year in prison for ?insulting the president? is a serious setback for press freedom in Egypt, Human Rights Watch said today.

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