The Skeptic الشكاك

489 The Idiot’s Guide to Governing Unruly Provinces

Noah Shachtman reports:

Psychological operations specialist Sgt. Joe Colabuno spent a year-and-a-half helping convince the Sunni residents of Fallujah to turn against local extremists by appealing to citizens’ sense of civic pride, pumping up their love of the national soccer team, citing the Koran, and provoking jihadists to overreact. Colabuno also appealed to the Sunnis hatred and fear of Shi’ites, and of Shi’ite Iran.

“For 7 or 8 months,” Colabuno tells me, “all we hear about is ‘Iran is doing all [of the attacks], Iran is behind everything.’ There was frustration from them [Fallujah’s locals] because we wouldn’t ‘admit it.’ Like maybe the U.S. was conspiring with Iran.”

“We’d stress in our SITREPS [situation reports] that in order to get these people on our side, we’ve got to play into their fears abut Iran,” he adds.

Then, in January, “the White House suddenly got involved,” talking tough about how Tehran was stoking instability in Iraq. “That overnight changed the attitudes of the people towards us. They took it as almost an apology,” he adds. [Full post]

To which the Weekly Standard replies:

In the words of Billy Joel, ‘we didn’t start the fire.’ “Sectarian hate” predated the American invasion of Iraq, and we’d be foolish not to exploit it, when possible, to further our own ends. This is how empires effectively managed unruly provinces for centuries. Noah’s not all wrong, it’s certainly a dangerous game. But it seems that the strategy, for now, is showing obvious signs of success. Down the road it may cause problems, but back in January, everyone expected down the road to be all out civil war–so this seems like a good problem to have. [Full post]

Now, let’s put aside morality, wisdom, and foresight for a second. My recollection of the history of empires is faded, I’ll confess. But I don’t recall Rome stoking wars between Thracia and Phrygia, or London inciting war between Nova Scotia and New England. There’s a good reason for that: An empire made up of warring provinces is not much of an empire. And the world needs another Iran-Iraq war like it needs another WWI.

But right, no foresight, no morality… So how’s it panning out in the short-term? Rather than asking someone from one of those “unruly provinces” (they’re not to be trusted), let’s talk to an American soldier:

A Sunni insurgent group we’ve been battling for months, responsible for the death of my friend and numerous attacks, agreed to fight Al Qaeda alongside us. Since then, they’ve grown into a much more organized, lethal force. They use this organization to steal cars and intimidate and torture the local population, or anyone they accuse of being linked to Al Qaeda. The Gestapo of the 21st century, sanctioned by the United States Army. [Full post]

Propagandists: Kindly stick to the Iraqi football team. Iraqis know better what they need, but I suspect that most would prefer unity and something to cheer over an outside force fanning their civil war or egging them on to the Iranian front.

488 The Arabs Are Coming…

…to save your ass, so show some manners.

Citi of Arabia
Wall Street Journal
November 29, 2007

Abu Dhabi takes Manhattan–and Washington, too?

Investors seem delighted that Abu Dhabi is injecting $7.5 billion into Citigroup, bidding up stocks in general on new confidence that the mortgage solvency crisis might ease. We hate to spoil the party, but it strikes us as unfortunate, if not a tragedy, that America’s largest bank had to go hat in hand to Arab sheiks because of bad management and blundering U.S. monetary policy.

The Citi play is being spun as a master-stroke by Robert Rubin, the chairman of the bank’s executive committee. The bank gets a capital infusion without having to cut its dividend, and gives up only a minority stake while Abu Dhabi gets no seat on the board. Even better from a political point of view, Abu Dhabi will be able to convert shares for no more than a 4.9% stake, which comes in just below the 5% level that requires approval by the Federal Reserve. Mr. Rubin even seems to have greased the skids on Capitol Hill, with New York Senator Chuck Schumer already forgetting his campaign against Dubai Ports World.

Citigroup did have to shore up its balance sheet, and we suppose petrodollars are a better source of capital than U.S. taxpayers under a “too big to fail” doctrine. On the other hand, where were Mr. Rubin and the bank board when Citi was betting so much on subprime? Given the 11% the bank is paying Abu Dhabi, Citigroup’s other equity holders might also be better off down the road had they taken a dividend cut instead.

Most important, no one should be under any illusions that Abu Dhabi’s investment is a normal commercial transaction. It comes from a sovereign wealth fund controlled by a foreign government, which has political as much as business interests; from an Arab government that has a troubling history with American banking laws; and it offers a Middle Eastern entree into the U.S. financial system that since 9/11 plays a pivotal role in the war on terror.
More…

487 Wael Abbas’ YouTube Account Restored

It’s finally back. Have a look. Here’s the final statement from Google/YouTube:

We are committed to preserving YouTube as an important platform for expression of all kinds, while also ensuring that the site remains a safe environment for our users.  Balancing these interests raises very tough issues.  In this case, our general policy against graphic violence led to the removal of videos documenting alleged human rights abuses because the context was not apparent.  Having reviewed the case, we have restored the account of Egyptian blogger Wael Abbas – and if he chooses to upload the video again with sufficient context so that users can understand his important message we will of course leave it on the site.

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