The Skeptic الشكاك

505 Sinai Activist Detained

The Arabic Network for Human Rights Information (HRinfo) reports that a prosecutor has ordered the detention of activist (and blogger) Musaad Suleiman Hassan, better known as Musaad Abu Fagr, for 15 days of pretrial detention for trying to organize a sit-in to call attention to the grievances of the people of Sinai. Security arrested Musaad from his home the morning of December 26. He was also briefly detained in September.

HRinfo also reports that a Cairo court has thrown-out Alexandrian Judge Abd al-Fattah Murad’s lawsuit asking the government to censor the Web sites of human rights organizations and blogs. Judge Abd al-Fattah claimed the Web sites supported terrorism and endangered national security. Coincidentally, they also accused him of plagiarizing HRinfo’s latest report on Internet censorship.

***
In other news from Sinai, more than 1,000 Palestinian pilgrims returning from Hajj refused to be moved to camps in Sinai until the Israeli government gave them clearance to return to Gaza. They’ve been sitting in the desert for days. Yesterday, Palestinian medics said Israeli soldiers killed one woman and wounded four others as they crossed into Gaza. The IDF said it was unaware of any shooting at the border crossing.

503 Libya, Bulgaria, Lebanon, Egypt

Back from a few weeks’ vacation in SE Asia, catching up on a few items of interest from my e-mail inbox:

• Tom Hanks and Angelina Jolie will reportedly star in a film production of the saga of Bulgarian and Palestinian medics imprisoned in Libya on charges of infecting patients with HIV.
• In a related item, Libyan Foreign Minister Abd al-Rahman Muhammad Shalgam is expected to visit Washington in the next few days. US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said again she might travel to Libya soon. She first said she might after the medics were released in July. From the Dec. 21 press conference:
  

  QUESTION: Madame Secretary, on Libya, the Libyans have expressed a lot of frustration with the fact that you’ve said that you would go there, that they’re expecting some kind of benefit to their giving up their WMD and some of the other things that they’ve done with the Pan Am 103 families and that you haven’t been to Libya. What does this say to other countries that you’re hoping to improve their behavior, like Iran and North Korea, if they see that the U.S. isn’t delivering on their promises?

  SECRETARY RICE: Well, our promise had been to significantly improve U.S.-Libyan relations and to open — help open the door for Libya to receive investment and engagement with the international community. And I think that the decision by Colonel Qadhafi to give up their weapons of mass destruction has benefited Libya. It’s why there are new investment opportunities in Libya, it’s why so many companies are talking to the Libyans, it’s why a number of leaders have been to Libya and the leader has been to other countries.

  And I’m going to meet with Foreign Minister Shalgam shortly after the first of the year. And I actually look forward to the opportunity to go to Libya. I think it will be an important step. So I would simply not agree with the notion that this decision has not benefited Libya. I think it’s benefited Libya greatly. If you look at where Libya is now in terms of its interaction with the international community, in terms of its ability to receive foreign visitors, in terms of its ability to get investment, it’s day and night from where it was before it made these strategic decisions. But, of course, I’m looking for an opportunity to extend our relationship further.

• Hussein Fadlallah, the primary Shia cleric in Lebanon, has issued a progressive opinion on suicide attacks targeting civilians:
  

  ??? ????: ???????? ????????? ??? ???????? ?????? ???????

  ??? ???????? ?????? ?????? ????? ???? ??? ???? ??? ???? ????????? ??????????? ?????????? ??? ?????? ?????? ?????????? ?????? ??? ????? ????? ????? ???????? ?????? ??? ?? ??????? «????????» ??? ??? ??????? ????? ?? ????? ???? ??????? ??? ???????? ??? ?????? ?????? ???????? ?? ???????? ??? ???????.
  ????? ??? ???? ?? ????? ????? ??? ????? ????????? ??????????? ???????? ??? ??? ?????? ????????? ???????????? ????? ????? ????? ?????? ?? ????? ????? ?? ???? ????? ?????? ?? ???? ????? ????? ??? ???????. ????? ??? ??????? ??????? ???? ?????? ????????? ????????? ?????????? ?????? ??????? ??????? ??? ????? ????? ???? ????? ?????? ????? ??????? ?????? ?????? ??????? ??????????. ???? ??????? ???? ???? ????? ??? ??????? ????? ????? ?? ??? ???????? ??? ???????? ?? ?????? ????????? ??? ??? ?????? ?? ?? ????? ????? ???? ?????????? ????? ??????? ???????? ????? ?? ??????????? ?????? ?????? ????? ??? ??????? ???????? ??????????? ?????????? ???? ??????? ?????? ??? ??? ???????? ???? ??????.

  ????? ??? ?? ??? ????????? ????? ????? ???? ?? ???? ?? ?????? ?????? ?????????? ?? ???? ??? ?????? ??? ????? ?? ??????? ???? ???? ???? ??? ????????? ??? ?????? ????? ?? ?????? ??? ?????? ??? ???????? ???????? ?????????? ???? ??? ?????? ???????? ???? ?????? ?????? ????????? ???? ????? ?????? ????????? ???? ?????? ????? ??????? ?????? ???? ???? ???????? ?? ?????? ????? ???? ????? ????????? ???????? ?????? ??????? ???. ??? ??? ??? ??????? ???????? ??? ??????? ?? ????? ?????? ??????? ??????????? ???? ????? ????? ???????? ?????????.
  ????: ????? ?? ????? ???? ????? ??? ????? ??? ??? ????????? ?????????? ????????? ???? ??? ?????? ?? ??? ????????? ?? ???? ?? ???? ???? ???????? ??????? ?????????? ?????? ????? ???? ????? ???????? ?? ????? ??????? ?????? ?????? ?? ??? ??????.
  (thanks, Nadim)

• Egypt accused Israel of meddling in its relations with the United States after Congress agreed to suspend $100 million in aid to Egypt until the congressmen had verified Egypt is doing all it can to stop weapons smuggling into Gaza. Note that provisions from the same amendment requiring Egypt to take steps to strengthen the independence of the judiciary and curb police abuse have disappeared from the discussion.
• Noted: Kamal Abbas’ appeal has been adjourned until Feb. 6, 2008. A misdemeanors court in 15th of May City sentenced Abbas, the leader of the shuttered Center for Trade Union and Workers’ Services, and Muhammad Helmi to one year in prison on criminal libel charges in September. They are free, pending appeal.

502 Catchy Tune…

If Sam the Eagle here has the story right, this VOA/Persian correspondent is in so much trouble with her boss…

Catchy tune.

501 Terrorism, Counterterrorism

Too important not to note:

The blasts in Algeria yesterday, blasts which caught a school bus, killed at least 77 people, and destroyed a UN compound. Adding insult to injury (and death), these murderous dogs sound like parodies of themselves:

In a detailed Internet statement, the group identified two “martyrs” who detonated vehicles loaded with explosives outside the court building and “the headquarters of the international infidels’ den,” a reference to the U.N. offices. [WaPo. Domestic, Algerian coverage here.]

François al-Hajj, the Lebanese Army’s chief of operations, was killed, along with three other people, in a bomb attack outside of Beirut today. He was tipped to have been chief of the armed forces if Gen. Michel Suleiman becomes president.

A triple car bombing in the southern Iraqi city of Amara killed at least 40 people today.

Human Rights Watch yesterday released a damning report casting serious doubt on the 2006 “Victorious Sect” arrests here in Egypt. “Beyond coerced confessions, there appears to be no compelling evidence to support the government’s dramatic claims,” HRW said.

On the eve of peace talks, Israeli tanks attacked Gaza yesterday, killing at least six Palestinians. The Palestinians said the attacks, and new Israeli settlements planned for East Jerusalem, were an attempt to disrupt the peace talks. The Israelis said the attacks were routine, as if that were somehow better.

Lastly, and much less importantly, I must confess I’m still thinking about robots. The product of too much time and too little sleep, no doubt. At the risk of further damaging my credibility, I can’t resist passing along this 75-year-old editorial about an inventor shot by his robot, which appeared on one of my favorite blogs, Paleo-Future, today.

500 Syria: Rights Activist Round-Up

The Syrian Human Rights Committee reports that Security detained 22 people involved in the 2005 Damascus Declaration for Democratic Change the night of Dec. 9-10. In some cases, Security released the activists after questioning. In others, they continued to hold the activists. It is still unclear whether they’ll be released after interrogation, intimidation, and offers to become informers, or whether further arrests will follow.

Full statement in English:

The Syrian Human Rights Committee (SHRC) has strongly condemned the random arrest campaign against 22 members of the National Council of Damascus Declaration launched by the Syrian Intelligence authorities on the evening of Sunday (9/12/2007) and the early morning of Monday (10/12/2007). SHRC’s media spokesman commented that “the Syrian authorities permitted the National Council to convene, and then resumed their arrest campaign against its activists, which represents a recurred trick pursued by the authorities”. The spokesman questioned whether “the Syrian authorities aim to cast all members of the National Council in jail or to isolate a number to make an example of them as they had done with some signatories of Damascus-Beirut Declaration”. The spokesman regards the arrests as “the Syrian authorities’ gift to the Syrian people and the world on the Annual World Day of Human Rights”. “They want to set a practical proof of their practises and attitudes towards every citizen who want to achieve democracy, pluralism and human rights in Syria”.

The spokesman concluded his comment by demanding the immediate release of the detainees and to stop all sorts of repressive measurements against them and other citizens.

Background

The Syrian authorities arrested 22 members of the National Council of Damascus Declaration on the eve of Sunday (9/12/2007) and the early morning of Monday (10/12/2007). They are:

From Damascus: Fawaz Tillo (former Damascus spring detainee) 2001
From Aleppo: Ghazi Kaddoor, Piere Rustum, Usama AShour, Radif Mustafa
From Homs: Muwaffak Nairabiyah, Najati Tayyarah
From Lattakia: Kamel Abbas, Nasr Saeed
From Swayda: Ghaleb Amer
Frpm Dair Azzour: Ahmad Tomah, Fawzi Hamadeh, Fawaz al-Hayes, Abdul-Qahhar Saood.
From Dar’a: Ali Ibrahim al-Jahmani, Yussof Owaid, Mohamad al-Masalmeh

They have released four from al-Hasakah, they are Fuad Iliah, Abdul Kareem al-Dahhak, Ziyad al-Feel.

The Syrian Human Rights Committee
10/12/2007

495 Qadhafi in Paris

Nicolas Sarkozy in Tripoli last July. You can just barely see the Libyan fist crushing a U.S. fighterplane in the background.

So Muammar al-Qadhafi is going to be staying in a heated tent next to the Elysée Palace during his week-long airplane- and nuclear-reactor shopping trip to Paris. Rights groups, Bulgarians, and the press, noting that his visit coincides with the anniversary of the signing of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights, are denouncing the colonel as a dictator. Al-Qadhafi comes to Paris fresh from Lisbon, where, for his part, he explained terrorism as a natural response to the “dictatorship in the United Nations.”

Le Monde‘s cartoon, Dec. 10

Don’t bet on Sarko to bring up many tough questions, the rousing rhetoric on human rights in his election victory speech notwithstanding (fast-forward in the video to 7:30).

He’s apparently leaving those to Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner and Human Rights Minister Rama Yade. See Kouchner’s remarks in La Croix (“Pas question d’oublier le nom des victimes qui lui furent imputées. Pas question d’oublier quoi que ce soit de leurs souffrances“) and Yade’s more pointed remarks to Le Parisien (“La France n’est pas qu’une balance commerciale“). She’s already backtracking, though she’ll apparently skip dinner with the Colonel to attend FIDH’s dinner in honor of the Universal Declaration.

494 Saudis Battle Wizards and Women

The Saudi religious police are funding a 700,000-riyal ($200,000) study into the harmful effects of “mixing” (read “women in the workplace”) and are devoting more resources to training members in counter-witchcraft and counter-deviancy. On November 2, the Saudis executed an Egyptian on ridiculous charges of practicing sorcery. From Al-Arabiya:

???????? ???? ?????? ??”??????? ????????? ???????????”
????? ??”????? ????????”?? ???????? ????????? ??700??? ????

???- ???????.??

???? ??????? ?????? ?????? ????? ???????? ?????? ?? ??????? ??????? ???????? ???????? ???????? ????? ?? ????? ????? ?? ???????? ?? ??????? ???????? ????? ????? ?? ???700 ??? ????. ???? ????? ??????? ??????? ???? ????? ????? ????? ???????? ?????? ?? ??????? ?????? ????? ?????? ????????? ???? “???? ????? ?? ???????? ?????????? ??????????”. ????? ?????? ?????? ?? ??????? ??????? ???? ??? “????? ????????? ??????? ?? ???????? ?????? ??? ?????????? ?????? ?????? ??????? ???????? ??????? ?????????? ???????? ?????? ????????? ??????? ??? ????? ??????? ????? ??????? ???” ???? ???? ??? ??? ?? ????? “????? ??????” ???????? ?????? 6-12-2007.

?? ??? ????? ????? ??????? ???? ???? ??????? ???? ??????? ????? ??????? ?????? ?????? ????? ???????? ?????? ? ????? ???? ??????? ?????? ??????????? ????? ??????? ?? ??????? ?????????? ????? ????? ????? ???? ????? ???????? ?????? ?? ??????? ???? ????????? ????????? 25 ?????? ????? ??????? ?????? ????????? ??? ?? ????? ??????? ????? ?????? ????? ??????? ????? ?? ???? ?????? ????? ???????? ??? ??? ?????. ????? ????? ????? ??? ??? ????? ?????? ????? ???? ??????? ?????? ????? ????? ???????? ?????? ?? ??????? ???? ?? ?????? ?????? ??? ??????? ????????? ?? ??????? ????? ???? ?? ????? ????????? ?????? ???????? ???? ???????? ?? ?????? ???????? ?? ?????? ??????????? ??? ????? ??????? ???? ?????? ???????? ???????? ????????.

UPDATE: An Egyptian journalist friend writes from the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia: “Greetings from Medina, where I discovered to my absolute horror yesterday that cigarettes sales are completely banned here and in Mecca. I was wandering around to stores yesterday and I might as well have been asking where they kept the cocaine! As if I needed another reason to dislike these people….”

493 Public Service Announcement

Cairo traffic really has gotten worse.

Il fait beau dans le métro.

492 The Middle East and Asimov’s Laws of Robotics

Punditpalooza: What’s the noun of assembly for op-ed writers? “A pontification of priests” has “pontification” in it, but “priests” seems strikingly inappropriate. Some might argue that “a drift of swine” would be more like it, but I think “a glozing of taverners” is more charitable and perhaps more accurate. In any case, you can find them, and links to all the articles they wrote, mostly about the NIE, here.

Ahmadinejad and the Gulf: Marc Lynch notices what most everyone else failed to notice in our astonishment at the NIE: Mahmoud Ahmadinejad glad-handing at the GCC. Prof. Lynch is more cautious, but these two events — the release of the NIE, Ahmadinejad in the Gulf exchanging platitudes about closer ties — could together make yesterday a decisive turning point in the world’s relations with Iran. How quickly can the United States pivot? I don’t think you appease someone like Iran’s diminutive president. I suspect you bait him with his megalomania until he chokes on it or finds himself caught in a cage. Like in chess or martial arts: You show your opponent a false opening, a feigned weakness, invite him in, and use his weight against him.

Moumediene/Al Odah v. Bush: Habeas corpus and Guantanamo at the Supreme Court. Brief resource center here. Good overview of what’s at stake from The Christian Science Monitor.

Dawn Visitors: Security detained 25 members of the Muslim Brotherhood in Cairo Wednesday morning. Security also detained either 11 (Reuters) or 13 (AFP) brothers in Sohag December 4. The Brotherhood renounced violence in the 1970s.

No Fuel in Gaza: Israeli sanctions have forced all official filling stations in Gaza to close indefinitely. No fuel also means that power stations can’t generate electricity and waterworks can’t pump water. So people are living in the dark without running water. The Palestinians are asking Egypt to help.

Tighter Control of Mercenaries: Mercenaries just got even less useful. The Pentagon and the State Department signed an agreement putting tighter military controls on Blackwater. Better late than never. Used to be that they were somewhat useful because they were not accountable. At least they still make blimps. I like blimps. But I’m not sure they’re the best use of Americans’ Hard-Earned Tax Dollars.

AU-EU Summit: Egypt hosted a preliminary meeting on the Lisbon EU-AU summit. So what? In 2004-2005, a high-level meeting on Darfur and human rights in Egypt would have sounded like a pipe dream.

Russia Flexes Naval Muscles in the Mediterranean and the Atlantic.

The Wacky Men and Women of the MKO: Video of a bizarre and ultimately boring parade of the Mojahidin-e Khalq, sort of the Scientologists of the “terrorist community,” set to techno. (Thanks, Blake, and congratulations)

Robots: I’ve been chewing over this weeks-old post from Mountainrunner for a few days now, and I have to confess, I’m not any closer to knowing what to think now than I was when I first read it. Mountainrunner reports that a South African robotic cannon went berserk, killing nine.

This has implications for his research, which sounds very interesting. Take his survey on perceptions of robots in warfare simply to be asked questions you likely never will be again. Ron Arkin’s paper on “constraining lethal actions in an autonomous robotic system so that they fall within the bounds prescribed by the Laws of War and Rules of Engagement” (PDF here) is also well worth the detour.

Now, I know when I’m out of my depth, but speaking as an unarmed human being, I’m wondering if we need an NGO to campaign for Isaac Asimov’s Laws of Robotics in the same way human rights organizations campaign for the implementation of international humanitarian law. Asimov’s 3 Laws of Robotics, first postulated in Runaround (1942), are:

1. A robot may not injure a human being or, through inaction, allow a human being to come to harm.
2. A robot must obey orders given it by human beings except where such orders would conflict with the 1st Law.
3. A robot must protect its own existence as long as such protection does not conflict with the 1st or 2nd Law.

In Robots and Empire (1982), Asimov added a “Zeroth” Law, to proceed and supersede all the others: “A robot may not injure humanity or, through inaction, allow humanity to come to harm.”

Why can’t all robots be like QRIO? (Elaborate bow, Mountainrunner)

491 Is That Egg on Your Face?

A lot of traffic today on the US National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) on Iran’s Nuclear Intentions and Capabilities. Here are the NIE’s key findings:

We judge with high confidence that in fall 2003, Tehran halted its nuclear weapons program; we also assess with moderate-to-high confidence that Tehran at a minimum is keeping open the option to develop nuclear weapons. We judge with high confidence that the halt, and Tehran’s announcement of its decision to suspend its declared uranium enrichment program and sign an Additional Protocol to its Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty Safeguards Agreement, was directed primarily in response to increasing international scrutiny and pressure resulting from exposure of Iran’s previously undeclared nuclear work.

• We assess with high confidence that until fall 2003, Iranian military entities were working under government direction to develop nuclear weapons.
• We judge with high confidence that the halt lasted at least several years. (Because of intelligence gaps discussed elsewhere in this Estimate, however, DOE and the NIC assess with only moderate confidence that the halt to those activities represents a halt to Iran’s entire nuclear weapons program.)
• We assess with moderate confidence Tehran had not restarted its nuclear weapons program as of mid-2007, but we do not know whether it currently intends to develop nuclear weapons.
• We continue to assess with moderate-to-high confidence that Iran does not currently have a nuclear weapon.
• Tehran’s decision to halt its nuclear weapons program suggests it is less determined to develop nuclear weapons than we have been judging since 2005.
• Our assessment that the program probably was halted primarily in response to international pressure suggests Iran may be more vulnerable to influence on the issue than we judged previously. [Full PDF of Press Release]

Check out page 9 of that document, which includes a handy table highlighting the differences between the 2005 IC Estimate and this NIE’s findings:

2005 IC Estimate	2007 National Intelligence Estimate
Assess with high confidence that Iran currently is determined to develop nuclear weapons despite its international obligations and international pressure, but we do not assess that Iran is immovable.	Judge with high confidence that in fall 2003, Tehran halted its nuclear weapons program. Judge with high confidence that the halt lasted at least several years. (DOE and the NIC have moderate confidence that the halt to those activities represents a halt to Iran’s entire nuclear weapons program.) Assess with moderate confidence Tehran had not restarted its nuclear weapons program as of mid-2007, but we do not know whether it currently intends to develop nuclear weapons. Judge with high confidence that the halt was directed primarily in response to increasing international scrutiny and pressure resulting from exposure of Iran’s previously undeclared nuclear work. Assess with moderate-to-high confidence that Tehran at a minimum is keeping open the option to develop nuclear weapons.
We have moderate confidence in projecting when Iran is likely to make a nuclear weapon; we assess that it is unlikely before early-to-mid next decade.	We judge with moderate confidence that the earliest possible date Iran would be technically capable of producing enough highly enriched uranium (HEU) for a weapon is late 2009, but that this is very unlikely. We judge with moderate confidence Iran probably would be technically capable of producing enough HEU for a weapon sometime during the 2010-2015 time frame. (INR judges that Iran is unlikely to achieve this capability before 2013 because of foreseeable technical and programmatic problems.)
Iran could produce enough fissile material for a weapon by the end of this decade if it were to make more rapid and successful progress than we have seen to date.	We judge with moderate confidence that the earliest possible date Iran would be technically capable of producing enough highly enriched uranium (HEU) for a weapon is late 2009, but that this is very unlikely.

Lots of unanswered questions here (Why the change? Why now? How to account for the administration’s stance over the past months when they were presumably getting the intelligence that eventually formed this consensus?), and I’m sure they’ll be well covered in the press over the weeks to come.

But in the meantime, I can’t resist noticing the egg on the face of Israeli Ambassador Sallai Meridor, who spent the weekend warning Washington that “time is running out” for the United States and Israel to do something about Iran’s nuclear weapons program. As Shmuel Rosner and Aluf Benn wrote last night: “The official report blew up in his face: Time is not running out, the Iranians are not making progress, and Israel may come to be seen as a panic-stricken rabbit.”

Which leads me to the egg on the Washington Institute for Near East Policy‘s face. They chose an unfortunate day to release a report by Chuck Freilich, “U.S.-Israeli Dialogue on Iran’s Nuclear Program.” Freilich concludes:

Serious obstacles exist to a true bilateral U.S.-Israeli dialogue on what is arguably the most important issue they have ever faced together. By the time the two countries overcome these obstacles, the risk exists that they will be too late to realize fully the benefits of joint consultation, both in terms of the means of preventing Iran from achieving an operational capability and of adopting joint measures for living with a nuclear Iran.

Reading the NIE alongside WINEP’s conclusions might well lead policymakers to conclude that these “serious obstacles” are a good thing. As The Australian quipped in its headline: “Hawks See the End is NIE.”

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