241 Aoun the Opportunist

Lebanon’s convoluted recent history and confessional politics breed complex public personalities. But opposition leader Gen. Michel Aoun—a Maronite, anti-Syrian, anti-Israeli, renegade military commander turned factional warlord, prime minister, exile, and, since February, ally of Syrian-backed Hizballah—is complex even by Lebanese standards. Speaking to reporters as Kofi Annan was finding a frosty reception from Hizballah supporters in Beirut, Aoun yesterday urged Lebanon’s Cabinet to resign because of its response to the Israeli invasion.

“We hope … a very peaceful change takes place, preserving stability in the country. If this change does not happen in such a way, there are other ways to escalate from now on,” he said.

What’s he up to?

Is this just the righteous indignation of the man who mustered a battalion to defend the presidential palace in the 1982 invasion—and so gained the distinction of mounting the Lebanese army’s only attempt to defend the country?

Is Hizballah’s well-oiled PR machine in gear, trying to make sure this news cycle isn’t all about Kofi Annan’s scolding, as the coincidence of the organized, anti-Annan protests and Aoun’s press conference might suggest?

Or is this only a cheap attempt to exploit Prime Minister Fouad Siniora’s weak handling of the war—crying instead of defending the country—in a bid for power?

I don’t know how unhappy the Lebanese are with Siniora’s response to the war. But Siniora’s and Olmert’s governments may yet fall as a result of this war. In this sense, their fates are bound up together. I would imagine an Aoun-Hizballah coalition would hasten Olmert’s demise. It would also risk hastening the cease-fire’s demise.

And Aoun’s threat to resort to violence is troubling no matter what he had in mind. The opportunism bothers me only a little. We’re all used to being led by loathsome opportunists. It’s the recklessness that bothers me. When so many people are working so hard to make sure the cease-fire holds (sending money and troops to rebuild and police the South, trying to work out a lasting political solution) it seems particularly irresponsible to use loose threats of violence for domestic political gain.

[tags]Lebanon, Aoun, Annan[/tags]

2 Comments »

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  1. Aoun did not threaten to resort to violence.

    See the following link for clarification.

    Comment by Anarchorev — September 1, 2006 #

  2. Thanks for the link to the clarification, Anarchorev. BTW – I really appreciated your interview with Dan.

    Comment by Administrator — September 2, 2006 #

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